“Estimates are never right”

“We always seem to under-estimate” (mostly project managers)

“We never win jobs because of over-estimating” (mostly sales managers)

Some of the above statements / objections may sound very true on the face of it, but could not be further from the truth in reality. Some of them are even contradictory.

Anecdotally colleagues say “it is guesswork”, which in a way is partly true, but every time that is said, I say “it’s an informed guess”, or “an educated guess”. It is said that estimating is a “black art”, which I sincerely believe is untrue and should not be the case. In my opinion, if it cannot be simply explained, it is not an estimate. To be of any use, all estimates need to be understood and agreed with individuals who are not experts in estimating but will help finance the project. It is the responsibility of the estimating community to make their estimates as transparent as possible, for them to be able to generate confidence in their work.

It is said estimating is part science, part art and part skill. I agree with that but would like to also add common sense to that list. As in everyday life, I think common sense should be an integral part of all engineering activities and definitely much more so for estimating. I have myself successfully applied common sense in very many difficult situations during the course of my career so far, and would highly recommend applying just that instead of getting bogged down by industry standards, procedures, backdated ideas and expectations. I would encourage all estimators to seriously think outside the box to be able to help generate confidence in the work we do and also help businesses deliver better value.

Cost is a fact

Price is a policy

Estimate is an opinion

This is what I heard in the beginning of my estimating career and it has since stuck with me. For a long time, I did believe that all estimates are “my opinion” and nothing more. I did not have anything else to do but support the businesses I worked for with my estimates as opinions, and left the decision making to others. Since that time I have come a long way, and nowadays, I think estimates are more than just opinions and estimators have a larger role to play in the success of a business. Estimators should play a more integrated and larger role in the design option selection, scope definition, contracting strategy discussions, technical & commercial bid evaluations, planning & scheduling, cost control, change management and risk management.

A more pro-active approach to estimating combined with the right attitude, presentation, common sense and convincing backups, decision makers could be assisted to take faster decisions thus allowing the business to succeed and grow.